The Dypto Times - Kraken’s Global Economist Says Bitcoin Will Lead 2026

For a long time, conviction in crypto meant that the SEC or some other government was coming after you. And the end result was that you had lost. But today, the other definition is what we want to talk about.

We’ve said it many times, we didn’t get into crypto to be poor. What we don’t say enough is that we believe. We believe in the tech, we believe it’s the future of finance. And we believe in ETH. Now, people who matter are starting to believe, too. But unlike us, they have really deep pockets. 

All good things this week. Time to get after it.

From the Dypto Crypto Newsroom

Crumbling Walls – BNY and Binance Are Merging Finance

TLDR

• Blockchain is quickly becoming the backbone of finance.

• Binance is now offering gold and silver futures contracts.

• BNY is tokenizing institutional banking.

For the last decade, financial observers have generally divided the world into two distinct camps: Traditional Finance (TradFi) and Decentralized Finance (DeFi). On one side, you had centuries-old banks, stock exchanges, and physical commodities like gold. On the other, you had Bitcoin, Ethereum, and 24/7 digital exchanges.

That dividing line continues to vanish a bit more with every passing day. Two major announcements from opposite ends of the financial spectrum signaled a massive shift in how money moves. 

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, began selling products usually reserved for commodities brokers. Simultaneously, BNY, America’s oldest bank, announced it is putting cash on the blockchain. 

Two news stories with similar problems being solved.

When viewed together, these two announcements reveal three critical trends that will define the financial landscape of 2026.

1. The 24/7 Market Standard - Both BNY and Binance are solving for the same variable: time. Binance highlights “24/7 Traditional Market Exposure” as a key benefit of their new product. BNY highlights “always-on operating models” as the driver for their tokenized deposits. The era of financial markets opening at 9:30 AM and closing at 4:00 PM is coming to an end. 

2. Blockchain as the Backend - For years, skeptics argued that blockchain was a solution in search of a problem. BNY’s adoption suggests the debate is settled. 

3. The Everything Portfolio - The silos are breaking down as platforms are merging capabilities. You can hold a tokenized representation of a bank deposit, use it to buy a fractional Bitcoin, and hedge that position with a Gold contract — all within the same digital ecosystem.

Read the full story at Dypto Crypto

Is the ETH Supply Squeeze Happening? Did We Call It?

TLDR

• Back in December, we wrote an article about a possible ETH supply squeeze. The data at the time showed that it was a possibility in the near future.

• The signs continue to accumulate. Staking is at all-time highs, with nearly 30% of the supply locked up.

• Institutional interest continues to increase.

• This week, Etherscan recorded a record for new ETH addresses.

Market analysts have spent months speculating on the possibility of an Ethereum “supply squeeze”, a scenario in which the supply drops sharply while demand remains steady or increases. According to the latest on-chain data and market reports, that theoretical scenario appears to be transitioning into a tangible reality.

We’re not saying it’s happening. But if it is…we called it.

The primary driver of the current supply squeeze discussion is the rapid depletion of ETH held on centralized exchanges. Data from back in December showed that the percentage of Ethereum’s circulating supply on exchanges like Coinbase and Binance has dropped to just 8.7%. It has since gone up a bit, but not by much.

If Ethereum is leaving exchanges, where is it going? The data points to staking. Staking involves locking up ETH to help secure the network in exchange for rewards. Once ETH is staked, it is removed from the immediate circulating supply, effectively becoming illiquid. 

Staked Ether has reached a new all-time high of roughly 36 million ETH. This accounts for nearly 30% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply.

Following the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025, Ethereum has seen a resurgence in user metrics. Over the last week, the network has averaged 327,000 new wallets created per day. Sunday set a single-day record with almost 600,000. Additionally, the number of active addresses on Ethereum has surged to over 847,000. 

Read the full article at Dypto Crypto

Question of the Week

From a new Dypto Crypto Team member (Same one as last week. He’s real, real new.) - "I was doing some research and came across the term ‘bear market rally’. Seems like a weird term. What does it mean?"

Meme of the Week

Source

By the Numbers - The Dypto Crypto Portfolio

Here’s a screenshot of our portfolio, which we started in late December 2024.

Original portfolio valuation - 3 ETH ($9,670)

2025 portfolio valuation - $8,049 YTD - (-)15%

2026 start - $8,813

Current valuation - $8,907 YTD - 1%

We’re in the green in 2026 for the first time. Still down a bit overall, but if you read our recent posts on the ETH supply squeeze, you’ll see why we don’t think the red will last much longer. We have a lot of conviction in ETH. 

And now…everyone else is getting on the train. Choo choo!

Deep Dive - Kraken Economist: Bitcoin to Lead 2026, But Rules Changing

Thomas Perfumo, Kraken’s Global Economist, has released a comprehensive outlook for 2026, suggesting that while Bitcoin remains the dominant force, the mechanisms driving the market are beginning to shift.

According to Perfumo, the “euphoric” phases of previous cycles are giving way to a more complex, macro-driven environment. 

Perfumo’s analysis claims that Bitcoin is no longer operating in a vacuum. Throughout 2025, the asset’s price action was heavily influenced by macroeconomic forces — namely mixed economic growth, sticky inflation, and geopolitical instability.

His article suggests this trend will continue into 2026. However, the market structure has matured. Instead of the wild, unbridled volatility seen in the industry’s early days, Bitcoin is now experiencing “compressed volatility ranges”, something we’ve mentioned in previous articles, albeit using different phrasing. 

But the translation is that price swings are tighter, though they are still punctuated by sharp moves driven by specific narratives or news events.

Key to this new structure is the rise of institutional investment vehicles. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock’s IBIT) and corporate treasuries (like Strategy) have become massive drivers of net capital flows. In 2025 alone, these entities represented nearly $44 billion in net spot demand.

Read the full article at Dypto Crypto

Question of the Week Answer

A bear market rally is a temporary, often short-lived increase in asset prices or market indices during a broader bear market (a period when the market is generally declining, typically defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent highs). 

These rallies can give the illusion that the market is recovering, but they are usually followed by further declines. To bring it into full crypto perspective, it’s often called a dead cat bounce. An unfortunate name for an unfortunate event.

Key Characteristics of a Bear Market Rally:

1. Short-Term Gains: Prices rise for a brief period, often days or weeks, but the overall trend remains downward.

2. Driven by Optimism or News: These rallies can be triggered by positive news that temporarily boosts investor confidence.

3. False Hope: Investors may mistake the rally for the start of a new bull market.

4. Volatility: Bear market rallies are often accompanied by high volatility, with sharp price swings in both directions.

What Does It Mean?

• For Investors: A bear market rally can be a trap for investors who believe the market has bottomed out and start buying aggressively, only to face further losses when the market resumes its decline.

• For Traders: Short-term traders may see these rallies as opportunities to profit from quick price movements, but timing is critical.

• For the Economy: It reflects uncertainty and lack of confidence in the broader economic outlook, as the underlying issues causing the bear market remain unresolved.